Back at the new Yankee stadium, these teams face off tonight in a park that has been generous to the long ball this year. The new park has been the location producing the highest combined OPS in the majors thus far in 2009, at a whopping .905. It has been said that the wind patterns are blowing balls over the RF fence at alarming rates, and it looks like the wind is up above 10 MPH tonight.
Pitching are the extremely fresh faced Anthony Ortega (with one MLB start to his name) and the inconsistent A.J. Burnett. Ortega has not been good in limited action in the bigs, posting a 7+ FIP, while Burnett has been somewhere in the middle with a 4.01 FIP. Ortega is not a strikeout pitcher, and has generally tried to keep the ball on the ground, averaging a slightly higher than 45% GB rate. But he has had bad outings with the Angels and at AAA Salt Lake, and in 18.2 innings combined this year he has allowed 4 HR. Burnett has done decently against the Angels in his career, limiting them to a combined team OPS of .772 and a .247 BA. Not having Vladimir Guerrero is actually not a huge loss tonight for Anaheim, as he has been below average against Burnett with just a .735 OPS against him in career matchups. The newly acquired Bobby Abreu has been productive against A.J. though, posting .919 OPS in 58 ABs.
Versus RH pitchers, both teams are above average for the MLB, with NYY having a combined .777 OPS thus far and LAA having a nice .791 OPS. Beyond the starters, neither bullpen has been great this year, with WHIPs of 1.40 (NYY) and 1.70 (LAA) combined thus far in 2009.
This is a game to expect runs.
Free Baseball Bets pick: OVER 10.5 -110
Thursday, April 30, 2009
Free Baseball Bet Apr30'09: St. Louis (M.Boggs/R) @ Washington (D.Cabrera/R)
The Nationals have shown early flash, some coming from new off-season acquisition Adam Dunn, but their results in 2009 have been sadly...what you would expect from the Nationals. Without stellar pitching outings, this is not a team likely to go out and compete for a winning record. And their 5-15 mark to date shows it.
And beltway mainstay Daniel Cabrera, twirling tonight, has been far from stellar this year. In fact, his FIP of 5.27 borders on atrocious. Why so high? If you have followed Cabrera much of his career, you would likely guess: walks...and you would be right. In 18.1 innings to date, he has put on 12 men via the free pass; sprinkle in 22 hits and his 1.85 WHIP stands out like a bad Christmas sweater at a mandatory family get together - unfortunately, Nats fans are the unfortunate family members that have to endure it, and at the ballpark, they cutoff liquor sales. What makes this a particularly bad matchup tonight for Cabrera is that he is facing a St. Louis team that is very patient, tied for 8th most walks in the majors, and likely to take advantage of Cabrera's wildness. Oh yeah...against right-handed pitchers this year, St. Louis has been hit happy and have posted a .895 OPS (2nd in MLB) thus far this year to prove it.
Meanwhile, the Cards will place young Mitchell Boggs on the hill. With limited MLB experience, he has started 2009 well with a tiny 2.42 FIP, allowing just 1 ER in 7.2 innings against the Cubs. Not a high strikeout pitcher, Boggs has a history of keeping the ball on the ground with a GB% that has hovered around 50% in the minors & majors both. Backing him up is a bullpen that has been solid, and is anchored by the near unhittable Ryan Franklin. Meanwhile, unlike the Cards, the Nats have been below average against righties and have put up a measly .736 OPS against them.
The only thing worth knowing from an injury standpoint for this game is that the Cardinals are likely going to be without Ryan Ludwick for the 2nd straight game; but as a RH bat, it is not such a huge loss since they will likely dress an outfield full of good hitting lefties in Ankiel, Duncan and Rasmus.
At a price not overly expensive, time to jump on the Cards tonight.
Free Baseball Bets Pick: St. Louis -122
And beltway mainstay Daniel Cabrera, twirling tonight, has been far from stellar this year. In fact, his FIP of 5.27 borders on atrocious. Why so high? If you have followed Cabrera much of his career, you would likely guess: walks...and you would be right. In 18.1 innings to date, he has put on 12 men via the free pass; sprinkle in 22 hits and his 1.85 WHIP stands out like a bad Christmas sweater at a mandatory family get together - unfortunately, Nats fans are the unfortunate family members that have to endure it, and at the ballpark, they cutoff liquor sales. What makes this a particularly bad matchup tonight for Cabrera is that he is facing a St. Louis team that is very patient, tied for 8th most walks in the majors, and likely to take advantage of Cabrera's wildness. Oh yeah...against right-handed pitchers this year, St. Louis has been hit happy and have posted a .895 OPS (2nd in MLB) thus far this year to prove it.
Meanwhile, the Cards will place young Mitchell Boggs on the hill. With limited MLB experience, he has started 2009 well with a tiny 2.42 FIP, allowing just 1 ER in 7.2 innings against the Cubs. Not a high strikeout pitcher, Boggs has a history of keeping the ball on the ground with a GB% that has hovered around 50% in the minors & majors both. Backing him up is a bullpen that has been solid, and is anchored by the near unhittable Ryan Franklin. Meanwhile, unlike the Cards, the Nats have been below average against righties and have put up a measly .736 OPS against them.
The only thing worth knowing from an injury standpoint for this game is that the Cardinals are likely going to be without Ryan Ludwick for the 2nd straight game; but as a RH bat, it is not such a huge loss since they will likely dress an outfield full of good hitting lefties in Ankiel, Duncan and Rasmus.
At a price not overly expensive, time to jump on the Cards tonight.
Free Baseball Bets Pick: St. Louis -122
Free Baseball Bets goes 0-1 yesterday
With one rain out, our only live pick yesterday went poorly. Unfortunately, the bad start to the season for Kazmir continued, and the Twins took advantage early and often at home. Blackburn, as expected, had a nice outing against the Rays. But, we still missed the total line by a full 3 runs.
Look for a strong comeback with today's picks - I have a good feeling about the matchups selected.
Look for a strong comeback with today's picks - I have a good feeling about the matchups selected.
Wednesday, April 29, 2009
Free Baseball Bet Apr29'09: Tampa Bay (S.Kazmir/L) vs. Minnesota (N.Blackburn/R)
The Rays and Twins are not teams that have torn the cover off the ball thus far in '09. Tampa is a combined .773 OPS, while Minnesota is just .707 in the On-Base Plus Slugging category.
More specific to today's matchup, the OPS data is especially grim for one of these teams:
Most of Tampa's order has either not yet had a chance to face Blackburn or only seen him in one AB thus far in their respective careers. Thus, they are not likely to be comfortable facing him in the Metrodome. Meanwhile, Kazmir has owned most Twins hitters by allowing just a combined .575 OPS - the only exception being Morneau (1.083 OPS vs Kazmir), who can likely be pitched around. The Twins not having Mauer continues to leave a hole in their lineup until he comes off the DL (expected later this week).
Thus far this year, Kazmir has gotten off to a somewhat slow start and a 5.13 FIP, which is probably why the posted betting total is not even lower. But, this should be overcome by the great matchup data above and that he has always been a decent Road pitcher. Blackburn has seen his peripherals come into nice form this year, generating a low 3.73 FIP. Plus, he likes pitching in the Metrodome so much he posted just a 2.96 ERA at home last year.
Resulting Free Baseball Bets pick:
UNDER 8 +100
More specific to today's matchup, the OPS data is especially grim for one of these teams:
| vs Righties | vs Lefties | |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota | .604 | |
| Tampa | .784 |
Most of Tampa's order has either not yet had a chance to face Blackburn or only seen him in one AB thus far in their respective careers. Thus, they are not likely to be comfortable facing him in the Metrodome. Meanwhile, Kazmir has owned most Twins hitters by allowing just a combined .575 OPS - the only exception being Morneau (1.083 OPS vs Kazmir), who can likely be pitched around. The Twins not having Mauer continues to leave a hole in their lineup until he comes off the DL (expected later this week).
Thus far this year, Kazmir has gotten off to a somewhat slow start and a 5.13 FIP, which is probably why the posted betting total is not even lower. But, this should be overcome by the great matchup data above and that he has always been a decent Road pitcher. Blackburn has seen his peripherals come into nice form this year, generating a low 3.73 FIP. Plus, he likes pitching in the Metrodome so much he posted just a 2.96 ERA at home last year.
Resulting Free Baseball Bets pick:
UNDER 8 +100
Free Baseball Bet Apr29'09: Oakland (J.Outman/L) vs. Texas (V.Padilla/R)
The ballpark in Arlington has been fertile ground for run scoring this year, as it often is most years. So much so that it ranks only second behind the new Yankee Stadium in ballpark OPS rankings, at .905. Contributing to that is a Texas team that has hit a massive .940 OPS for the year on their own, when playing at home.
This prolific Texas team also loves to hit lefties this year, to the tune of an .875 OPS - right handed mashers Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Nelson Cruz and even Andruw Jones have all taken turns putting up large games. Meanwhile, Oakland bats have been rather underwhelming overall this year; but, they have averaged more than 5 runs per game in their last three.
What really sets this Free Baseball Bet up nicely is the weak starting pitching duo taking the hill. Texas hitters have ripped Outman to the tune of a .924 OPS and a .367 BA. Meanwhile, the big three hitters of Oakland, Giambi/Cust/Holliday, have put up equally similar strength OPS numbers against Padilla - plus, two of the OAK hitters Padilla has actually pitched well against, Ellis and Chavez, appear to be out of the lineup today. Thus far in the year 2009, Outman has posted a brutal 6.71 FIP and Padilla has put up a near equally bad 5.98 FIP. Neither of these pitchers seem poised to turn that around today.
Taking this all into consideration, the following wager is worth the price:
OVER 10.5 -125
This prolific Texas team also loves to hit lefties this year, to the tune of an .875 OPS - right handed mashers Ian Kinsler, Michael Young, Nelson Cruz and even Andruw Jones have all taken turns putting up large games. Meanwhile, Oakland bats have been rather underwhelming overall this year; but, they have averaged more than 5 runs per game in their last three.
What really sets this Free Baseball Bet up nicely is the weak starting pitching duo taking the hill. Texas hitters have ripped Outman to the tune of a .924 OPS and a .367 BA. Meanwhile, the big three hitters of Oakland, Giambi/Cust/Holliday, have put up equally similar strength OPS numbers against Padilla - plus, two of the OAK hitters Padilla has actually pitched well against, Ellis and Chavez, appear to be out of the lineup today. Thus far in the year 2009, Outman has posted a brutal 6.71 FIP and Padilla has put up a near equally bad 5.98 FIP. Neither of these pitchers seem poised to turn that around today.
Taking this all into consideration, the following wager is worth the price:
OVER 10.5 -125
Bad day yesterday, let's start a new rally
Misses on both picks yesterday, though STL was much closer than CHW.
So, what happened?
With the STL game, I was bang on with Lohse's ability to tame the Braves' bats; but, where things likely went wrong was underestimating how poorly the Cardinals are hitting lefties this year. With Pujols having an uncharacteristically poor game, their offense was not done any favors either.
In regards to SEA vs. CHW, this was likely a dual error: overestimation of Danks' fast start, combined with running smack into what appears to be the early stages of a King Felix hot streak (no Thome also did not help the White Sox). I probably should have taken a closer look at the FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching stat) for these pitchers, which stand at 3.03 for Hernandez and 4.28 for Danks. It may be time to consider playing on Felix for this next little while - his ability to get hot in April is an annual occurrence.
Some things to keep in mind for future picks.
So, what happened?
With the STL game, I was bang on with Lohse's ability to tame the Braves' bats; but, where things likely went wrong was underestimating how poorly the Cardinals are hitting lefties this year. With Pujols having an uncharacteristically poor game, their offense was not done any favors either.
In regards to SEA vs. CHW, this was likely a dual error: overestimation of Danks' fast start, combined with running smack into what appears to be the early stages of a King Felix hot streak (no Thome also did not help the White Sox). I probably should have taken a closer look at the FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching stat) for these pitchers, which stand at 3.03 for Hernandez and 4.28 for Danks. It may be time to consider playing on Felix for this next little while - his ability to get hot in April is an annual occurrence.
Some things to keep in mind for future picks.
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Free Baseball Bet Apr28'09: Seattle (F.Hernandez/R) @ Chicago (Danks/L)
Here we again see a line that opened stronger for the favorite but has softened to a point that appears to provide great value. "King Felix" gets a lot of respect wherever he goes and it would seem that he may be the reason why this line has shifted over 20 points.
While it is the Mariners that happen to be the one of these two teams with a winning record for the year, they have been leaning heavily on their pitching (and defense). At the plate, they have posted just a .672 OPS overall and an even worse .579 OPS against lefties (both 2nd worst in MLB). The White Sox are more middle of the road, and have faired reasonably well against righties with a .772 OPS.
The contrast gets even more stark with the past 10 game relevant batting averages:
Tack on an anaemic .336 overall SLG% for the Mariners, and they appear fortunate to be 5-5 of late. One has to feel just a bit more confident with the White Sox .435 SLG% over the same period.
But the killer blow for this game comes in the form of the head-to-head pitcher/hitter matchup data:
While Danks is not "shut-down" against the Mariners, he fares much better than King Felix does against the Southside Sox. However, the one thing you might want to watch out for is if Jim Thome is not in the starting lineup for this game; nobody has benefitted as much has he, going 5 for 8 with 3 HR against Hernandez.
While Felix has started the year off nicely, Danks has been near perfect in his three starts by allowing just 2 runs in 19 innings of work. With the White Sox at home, this game is a strong play.
Pick: White Sox -1.5 +170
While it is the Mariners that happen to be the one of these two teams with a winning record for the year, they have been leaning heavily on their pitching (and defense). At the plate, they have posted just a .672 OPS overall and an even worse .579 OPS against lefties (both 2nd worst in MLB). The White Sox are more middle of the road, and have faired reasonably well against righties with a .772 OPS.
The contrast gets even more stark with the past 10 game relevant batting averages:
| vs Righties | vs Lefties | |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle | .219 | |
| Chicago | .308 |
Tack on an anaemic .336 overall SLG% for the Mariners, and they appear fortunate to be 5-5 of late. One has to feel just a bit more confident with the White Sox .435 SLG% over the same period.
But the killer blow for this game comes in the form of the head-to-head pitcher/hitter matchup data:
| Batters vs | OPS | AVG |
|---|---|---|
| Felix Hernandez vs CHW | 1.278 | .386 |
| John Danks vs SEA | .864 | .305 |
While Danks is not "shut-down" against the Mariners, he fares much better than King Felix does against the Southside Sox. However, the one thing you might want to watch out for is if Jim Thome is not in the starting lineup for this game; nobody has benefitted as much has he, going 5 for 8 with 3 HR against Hernandez.
While Felix has started the year off nicely, Danks has been near perfect in his three starts by allowing just 2 runs in 19 innings of work. With the White Sox at home, this game is a strong play.
Pick: White Sox -1.5 +170
Free Baseball Bet Apr28'09: St. Louis (Lohse/R) @ Atlanta (J.J.Reyes/L)
The weakness of the line favoring the Cardinals surprises me for this game, on a number of levels.
Up front these are two teams moving in opposite directions, as the past 10 games has seen St. Louis post a 7-3 record while Atlanta has been sliding and posted a 4-6 record. In those games, the Cards have registered a slugging % of .490 while ATL has been down at .383.
St. Louis has been hitting the ball hard of late, only being slowed lately by efforts from the nasty Rich Harden and a good effort from Jair Jurrjens (after travelling to Atlanta for the first game of the series).
In regards to the pitchers, Lohse has started off the season in fine form, going 3-0 and posting a 0.96 WHIP with a 3.21 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching statistic) over 4 starts. However, in his only start of the year, Reyes got tuned, allowing 5 ER in 5 2/3 innings with a 1.76 WHIP.
As for the all important head-to-head pitcher/hitter matchups, here is how the starters shape up:
Albert Pujols especially has eaten Reyes for dinner, posting a 1.843 OPS in 7 AB that inclues a HR, a double and 3 BB. One of the few Braves that has had success against Lohse, Garret Anderson (with a 1.007 OPS against him in 25 AB), is presently on the DL. Another DL ridden lefty bat that could do some damage against the righty, were he available, is catcher Brian McCann - he has only contributed 1 hit in the past two weeks since encountering eye troubles, and his absence appears to be hampering the middle of the Braves order.
Bullpen-wise, the edge goes again to STL having posted a 1.24 WHIP thus far this year versus the 1.58 WHIP posted by ATL's pen.
Sure the Braves are at home for this game, but Reyes is not a pitcher that has taken advantage of his surroundings in the past; in 2008 he posted a 4.97 ERA on the road but a 6.89 ERA at home. Now that the Cards have had a chance to settle in after travelling and playing a game at Turner Field, look for their bats to come alive tonight.
Pick: Cardinals -115
Up front these are two teams moving in opposite directions, as the past 10 games has seen St. Louis post a 7-3 record while Atlanta has been sliding and posted a 4-6 record. In those games, the Cards have registered a slugging % of .490 while ATL has been down at .383.
| Past 10 | Record | Slugging% |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis | 7-3 | .490 |
| Atlanta | 4-6 | .383 |
St. Louis has been hitting the ball hard of late, only being slowed lately by efforts from the nasty Rich Harden and a good effort from Jair Jurrjens (after travelling to Atlanta for the first game of the series).
In regards to the pitchers, Lohse has started off the season in fine form, going 3-0 and posting a 0.96 WHIP with a 3.21 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching statistic) over 4 starts. However, in his only start of the year, Reyes got tuned, allowing 5 ER in 5 2/3 innings with a 1.76 WHIP.
As for the all important head-to-head pitcher/hitter matchups, here is how the starters shape up:
| Batters vs | OPS | AVG |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lohse vs ATL | .795 | .293 |
| Jo-Jo Reyes vs STL | 1.095 | .343 |
Albert Pujols especially has eaten Reyes for dinner, posting a 1.843 OPS in 7 AB that inclues a HR, a double and 3 BB. One of the few Braves that has had success against Lohse, Garret Anderson (with a 1.007 OPS against him in 25 AB), is presently on the DL. Another DL ridden lefty bat that could do some damage against the righty, were he available, is catcher Brian McCann - he has only contributed 1 hit in the past two weeks since encountering eye troubles, and his absence appears to be hampering the middle of the Braves order.
Bullpen-wise, the edge goes again to STL having posted a 1.24 WHIP thus far this year versus the 1.58 WHIP posted by ATL's pen.
Sure the Braves are at home for this game, but Reyes is not a pitcher that has taken advantage of his surroundings in the past; in 2008 he posted a 4.97 ERA on the road but a 6.89 ERA at home. Now that the Cards have had a chance to settle in after travelling and playing a game at Turner Field, look for their bats to come alive tonight.
Pick: Cardinals -115
Monday, April 27, 2009
Welcome
Welcome to Stax's Free Baseball Bets!
Featured here: baseball betting picks, from an industry veteran. But more than the picks, the logic behind them will be explained such that you can use it when considering your own set of wagers.
Every handicapper has his own style for breaking down wagers - you will find mine to be focused heavily on detailed match-up statistics, splits statistics, and other peripheral data that can be of use. It is Stax's credo that long-term betting profits come from finding hidden value against the posted lines; I believe this is best done by gaining an edge on the "superficial" casual bettors that influence these lines. It is about getting behind the overly broad stats and the ones dependent on luck, to the guts of on-field talent.
By following my advice as you make your baseball bets, my hope is to lead you to a multitude of future Stax o' cash!
Featured here: baseball betting picks, from an industry veteran. But more than the picks, the logic behind them will be explained such that you can use it when considering your own set of wagers.
Every handicapper has his own style for breaking down wagers - you will find mine to be focused heavily on detailed match-up statistics, splits statistics, and other peripheral data that can be of use. It is Stax's credo that long-term betting profits come from finding hidden value against the posted lines; I believe this is best done by gaining an edge on the "superficial" casual bettors that influence these lines. It is about getting behind the overly broad stats and the ones dependent on luck, to the guts of on-field talent.
By following my advice as you make your baseball bets, my hope is to lead you to a multitude of future Stax o' cash!
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