Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Bad day yesterday, let's start a new rally

Misses on both picks yesterday, though STL was much closer than CHW.

So, what happened?

With the STL game, I was bang on with Lohse's ability to tame the Braves' bats; but, where things likely went wrong was underestimating how poorly the Cardinals are hitting lefties this year. With Pujols having an uncharacteristically poor game, their offense was not done any favors either.

In regards to SEA vs. CHW, this was likely a dual error: overestimation of Danks' fast start, combined with running smack into what appears to be the early stages of a King Felix hot streak (no Thome also did not help the White Sox). I probably should have taken a closer look at the FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching stat) for these pitchers, which stand at 3.03 for Hernandez and 4.28 for Danks. It may be time to consider playing on Felix for this next little while - his ability to get hot in April is an annual occurrence.

Some things to keep in mind for future picks.

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