Free Baseball Bet May1'09: Cincinnati (B.Arroyo/R) @ Pittsburgh (Z.Duke/L)

The Reds come to town for a divisional matchup against the Pirates today. This is a pure splits matchup for a bettor, as there are some very stark statistical differences to observe.

Let's have a look at each team's situational hitting outputs thus far this year:

	OPS vs L	OPS vs R	Road OPS	Home OPS
Cincinnati	.586	.731	.675	.696
Pittsburgh	.678	.763	.683	.841

As can be seen in the splits that matter today, Cincinnati could be in some trouble on the road against a lefty. Meanwhile, being at home against a righty is the ideal setup for the Pittsburgh lineup (even more so if Nate McLouth returns from a week long absence, as he is expected to today).

Zach Duke, who has looked good to start the year, is the lefty taking the hill for Pittsburgh. He has posted an outstanding FIP of 3.16 to start the year and appears poised to do well against this Reds lineup that relies on heavy hitting lefty batters for success. Meanwhile, Bronson Arroyo has not done horribly over his career versus current Pirates' hitters, allowing only a .760 OPS against them. But his hideous 5.88 FIP has not been encouraging and he is coming off an outing where he allowed 9 ER in 5 2/3 innings against a Braves team that has not been stellar this year.

In the bullpens, the Pirates have had better success than the Reds, posting a 1.35 WHIP vs a 1.47 WHIP respectively.

Odds are this game gets decided early, so I would not fault you for making a wager on the first 5 innings. However, I am cranking up the value and expecting a blowout.

Free Baseball Bets Pick: PIT -1.5 +160